Based upon the to-date spending in the current NBA free agent market, if rosters were frozen today, 13 teams (Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles Lakers, New Orleans, New York, Orlando, Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah, and Washington) would be paying a collective $120M in penalties.  A portion of that is automatically distributed to help small market teams,but the remaining total would be divvied in approximate $7 million sums to each of the league’s other 17 teams.  If the Heat wants its $7 million share, it must get under the threshold.

Here is the current lineup and their salaries for the upcoming 2009 NBA season:

The Miami Heat is currently a hair below the $69.92M limit; however, it is required to field a team of 13 players and currently has only 11 under contract.  Any two rookies signed at the NBA minimum wage will still put the Heat $837,050 over the tax threshold.

If the Heat wants to limbo under the tax threshold and collect its bonus, it’ll need to shed at least $837,050 by trading off one of its existing players and replacing him with a lower salary.   And the most likely casualty is:

* DORELL WRIGHT : Wright has yet to live up to his potential with Miami, but everyone continues to sing his praises.  The Heat could easily trade Wright and cash to a cap-friendly team for a meaningless second-round draft pick.  This is what Miami did with Shaun Livingston last year to get under the cap.  Wright is a potential talent, and the Heat would love to keep him, but he’s not worth the $7 million dollars the Heat would be forfeiting in luxury tax bonus, especially since he’s going to be a free agent at the end of the season anyway.

There’s an outside chance that the Heat might pull a more substantial deal involving Udonis Haslem and use the excess savings to sign a veteran point guard, but the teams likely to get involved in that type of trade will continue to dwindle as free agency moves along.  Plus, Miami seems interested in getting Michael Beasley experience at small forward, perhaps in preparation for signing Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudmire in 2010.

Might we see Chris Bosh in a Miami Heat uniform soon?  According to an  Associated Press report, Chris Bosh does not plan on extending his contract with the Toronto Raptors this summer, and he intends to join the free agent class of 2010.

“[When] I signed a three-year [extension in 2006]… I had a goal in mind, and that was to put myself in the best position [in 2010] … I’m thinking I just want to stick to my goal, stick to what I was doing,” Bosh told reporters. “That’s a part of the plan … I just want to address things [after] next season. There’s a reason why I did things the way I did them back then.”

Something More than Money?

NBA officials suggest that the salary cap will decrease next season, making it likely that the talented crop of sought after players (Bosh, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Amare Stoudemire) can get more lucrative deals by extending their contracts with their current teams this summer than they can signing max deals as free agents in 2010.  Bosh’s statement can easily be interpreted as the first step toward an anticipated departure from Toronto.  If he was after money alone, he would extend his current contract.  Might Bosh have a warmer climate in mind?

If Pat Riley signs Wade to an extension this summer, the Heat has still positioned itself with enough space in 2010 to offer a max contract to Bosh.  Without state income tax in Florida, the Heat’s offer would be the richest Bosh could receive from a team other than Toronto.  Money, South Beach, sunshine, and a championship caliber pairing with Wade is an offer difficult to refuse.

Trade Options

If Miami doesn’t want to take its chances in next summer’s free agent sweepstakes, the statement from Bosh could be the motivation that Toronto needs to pull the trigger on a trade that would send Bosh to Miami in exchange for Michael Beasley and expiring contracts.

Either way, Bosh took a small but significant step this Thursday toward joining the Heat.

As we move towards June, radio talk-shows and NBA analysts may spin stories about Ricky Rubio in hopes of creating drama about the 2009 NBA Draft, but Blake Griffin is/was/always-has-been the top prospect in the draft.

Griffin had 30 double-doubles in his last season at Oklahoma, one short of the NCAA record held by NBA Hall of Famer David Robinson.  Griffin is a beast, and the comparisons to Carlos Boozer don’t do him justice.

Accepting that Griffin will be the top pick, regardless of who wins the NBA Draft lottery, here’s a look at how he would fit into each of their respective rosters.

SACRAMENTO KINGS  (25% chance of winning the NBA Draft lottery)

POTENTIAL 2009-2010 STARTING LINE-UP

C: Spencer Hawes, PF: Blake Griffin, SF: Franciso Garcia, SG: Kevin Martin, PG: Beno Udrih

Key Reserves: J. Thompson, A. Nocioni, R. McCants

Sacramento reluctantly selects the consensus #1 pick in Blake Griffin because he’s the best player in the draft, but now finds itself with a crowded young frontcourt of Griffin, Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes.  Whoever the Maloofs hire to replace the recently dismissed Kenny Natt will have to find enough playing time for all three.  While Griffin is better in the post than Hawes or Thompson, the team has bigger holes to fill.

In truth, the Kings won’t be too upset if they slip in the lottery or trade down so long as they’re able to land Rubio.  This international star is everything that the underachieving Beno Udrih is not, and he would allow Sacramento to put its best five guys on the court.

OVERALL IMPROVEMENT: 3 STARS OUT OF FIVE

WASHINGTON WIZARDS  (17.8% chance of winning the NBA Draft lottery)

POTENTIAL 2009-2010 STARTING LINE-UP

C: Brendan Heywood, PF: Blake Griffin, SF: Antawn Jamison, SG: Caron Butler, PG: Gilbert Arenas

Key Reserves: Dominic McGuire, DeShawn Stevenson, Andray Blatche

Washington introduces Blake Griffin into the starting lineup by sliding Jamison and Butler each down a spot to small forward and shooting guard respectively.  Neither Butler nor Jamison have excelled in these roles in the past, but new coach Flip Saunders will make it work.  With a healthy starting five that includes Griffin, the Wizards will improve greatly over last season’s 19 wins and easily turn into a playoff team in the East.

OVERALL IMPROVEMENT: 4 STARS OUT OF FIVE

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS   (17.7% chance of winning the NBA Draft lottery)

C: Chris Kaman, PF: Blake Griffin, SF: Zach Randolph, SG: Eric Gordon, PG: Baron Davis

Key Reserves: Marcus Camby, Al Thornton, Ricky Davis

The Clippers have a plethora of talented big men on their roster, but you don’t say no to a relative sure thing in the draft.  Griffin would go a long way toward healing the wounds that Elton Brand inflicted on LA’s “other team” when he left.  Griffin would most likely send Camby to the bench, that is until Kaman unavoidably gets hurt at some point during the season.

The Clippers have a lot of valuable pieces, but none of them seem to fit.  They could be a playoff team, even in the West, if they could get their act together.  Hopefully, Griffin’s hustle will rub off on the rest of the team and not the other way around.  Otherwise, the current squad of underachievers will erode Griffin into the next Derrick Coleman.

OVERALL IMPROVEMENT: 2 STARS OUT OF FIVE

 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER  (11.9% chance of winning the NBA Draft lottery)

POTENTIAL 2009-2010 STARTING LINE-UP

C: Nick Collison, PF: Blake Griffin, SF: Jeff Green, SG: Kevin Durant, PG: Russell Westbrook

Key Reserves: Nenad Krstic, Earl Watson, Thabo Sefolosha

Blake Griffin would be a dream come true for the Thunder and for Sooners fans.  Griffin’s addition would instantly increase ticket sales, and he’ll help the team win games too.  The Thunder lured Krstic from Europe in hopes he would provide inside scoring, but he never regained any semblance of reliability.  Griffin instantly provides needed points in the paint and added help on the glass.  Green and Durant slide down to make room, giving the Thunder four reliable scorers both inside and out.

OVERALL IMPROVEMENT: 4 STARS OUT OF FIVE

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES  (7.6% chance of winning the NBA Draft lottery)

POTENTIAL 2009-2010 STARTING LINEUP

C: Al Jefferson, PF: Blake Griffin, SF: Ryan Gomes, SG: Mike Miller, PG: Randy Foye

Key Reserves: Kevin Love, Craig Smith, Sebastian Telfair

If the Timberwolves find themselves with the first pick in this year’s draft, they’re going to wish they could take back that O.J. Mayo for Kevin Love trade as Foye-Mayo-Miller-Griffin-Jefferson fits a lot better than the line-up with Love.  While they’re at it, they might consider a do-over on the Foye-Brandon Roy trade as well. 

Griffin gives the T-Wolves a crowded frontcourt that’s big on scoring and weak on defense.  What they really need is improvement at the 2 or the 3 spot, but with a record of 22-55, you take the best player in the draft and find a way to get him on the court.

OVERALL IMPROVEMENT: 2 STARS OUT OF FIVE

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES   (7.5% chance of winning the NBA Draft lottery)

POTENTIAL 2009-2010 STARTING LINE-UP

C: Marc Gasol, PF: Blake Griffin, SF: Rudy Gay, SG: OJ Mayo, PG: Mike Conley

Key Reserves: Hakim Warrick, Darko Milicic, Darrell Arthur

Grffin would slide right into the Memphis lineup and provide an immediate inside scoring presence and someone that can help Gasol on the glass.  Griffin’s addition moves Hakim Warrick and Darrell Arthur to the bench, but Warrick proved last season that he’s better coming off the bench, and Darrell Arthur is inconsistent.

OVERALL IMPROVEMENT: 3 STARS OUT OF FIVE

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS  (4.3% chance of winning the NBA Draft lottery)

POTENTIAL 2009-2010 STARTING LINEUP

C: Andris Biedrins, PF: Blake Griffin, SF: Corey Maggette, SG: Stephen Jackson, PG: Monta Ellis

Key Reserves: Jamal Crawford, Kelena Azubuike, Ronny Turiaf

While it seems like Don Nelson sets his starting five with tarot cards, he’d be crazy not to play Griffin consistently n the 4-spot.  Now that he’s bullied Jamal Crawford to leave town, or at least promised him to the bench, Ellis, Jackson, Maggette, and Biedrins fill out the roster card nicely with a strong supporting bench.  Griffin won’t do anything to help with the teams’ awful defense, but even a lock-down defender like Bruce Bowen couldn’t turn that ship around.

OVERALL IMPROVEMENT: 3 STARS OUT OF FIVE

NEW YORK KNICKS  (2.8% chance of winning NBA Draft lottery)

POTENTIAL 2009-2010 STARTING LINEUP

C: Al Harrington, PF: Blake Griffin, SF: Wilson Chandler, SG: Larry Hughes, PG: Chris Duhon

Key Reserves: David Lee, Nate Robinson, Cuttino Mobley, Danilo Gallinari

Surprisingly enough, the Knicks are nearing the end of their long-suffering salary cap hell (although Eddie Curry and Jared Jeffries will still be overpaid for another few seasons).   What better way to start a new New York era than with an athlete like Blake Griffin at power forward. 

Now this means that David Lee will once again be pushed to the bench to the all too familiar groans of his fantasy fans.  But Blake Griffin sits for no one, and he shouldn’t.  If the Knicks are lucky enough to draft Griffin, they might let Lee go, depending on the offers Lee gets from other teams.

OVERALL IMPROVEMENT: 2 STARS OUT OF FIVE

TORONTO RAPTORS  (1.7% chance of winning NBA Draft lottery)

POTENTIAL 2009-2010 STARTING LINEUP

C: Andrea Bargnani, PF: Chris Bosh, SF: Joey Graham, SG: Jason Kapono, PG: Jose Calderon

Key Reserves: Blake Griffin, Marcus Banks, Kris Humphries

Landing Blake Griffin with the #1 pick is a bittersweet victory for Toronto.  Truthfully, the only position they DON’T need is a power forward, but all signs point to Bosh fleeing south at the end of the season, and Griffin’s arrival solidifies Bosh’s exit.  Griffin will play out of position at small forward or come off the bench this season, and next season make for a more than capable replacement at power forward and as the face of this franchise.

The bigger picture; superstars don’t last long in Toronto.  B.J. Armstrong refused to report to training camp following his selection in the 1995 expansion draft, and it’s been downhill ever since.  Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter, soon Bosh; how long would Griffin last?  Remember when Vancouver had a franchise?

OVERALL IMPROVEMENT: 2 STARS OUT OF FIVE

MILWAUKEE BUCKS  (1.0% chance of winning NBA Draft lottery)

POTENTIAL 2009-2010 STARTING LINEUP

C: Andrew Bogut, PF: Blake Griffin, SF: Richard Jefferson, SG: Michael Redd, PG: Ramon Sessions

Key Reserves: Luke Ridnour, Charlie Villanueva, Joe Alexander, Charlie Bell

Blake Griffin would be a godsend for the Milwaukee Bucks; their greatest need is at power forward.  Bogut and Redd will be back from injury and adding Griffin to this squad gives them legitimate scoring options at every position.  If the Bucks are lucky enough to win the lottery, they’ll easily emerge as a playoff team in the Eastern Conference. 

OVERALL IMPROVEMENT: 5 STARS OUT OF FIVE

NEW JERSEY NETS  (0.9% chance of winning the NBA Draft lottery)

POTENTIAL 2009-2010 STARTING LINEUP

C: Brook Lopez, PF: Blake Griffin, SF: Bobby Simmons, SG: Vince Carter, PG: Devin Harris

Key Reserves: Yi Jianlian, Ryan Anderson, Trenton Hassell

Stumbling upon Blake Griffin this year would certainly put a hiccup in the Nets plans to coronate LeBron James as King of Brooklyn in two seasons’ time.  Still, this is a developmental snag that any team would love to find themselves in.  Griffin and Lopez make a formidable attack inside, opening up space for vintage Carter.

OVERALL IMPROVEMENT: 3 STARS OUT OF FIVE

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS  (0.7% chance of winning the NBA Draft lottery)

POTENTIAL 2009-2010 STARTING LINEUP

C: Emeka Okafor, PF: Blake Griffin, SF: Gerald Wallace, SG: Raja Bell, PG: DJ Augustin

Key Reserves: Boris Diaw, Vladimir Radmonivic, DeSagana Diop

The Bobcats are happy to have won the first pick, and although Michael Jordan wants to use this pick to re-draft Kwame Brown, clearer heads prevail and the Bobcats select Blake Griffin.  Griffin will start immediately in the frontcourt alongside Emeka Okafor.  Okafor’s defense paired with Griffin’s inside scoring and rebounding make for a great combination.

Boris Diaw moves to the bench, where he’ll win the NBA Sixth-Man Award.

OVERALL IMPROVEMENT: 3 STARS OUT OF FIVE

INDIANA PACERS  (0.6% chance of winning the NBA Draft lottery)

POTENTIAL 2009-2010 STARTING LINEUP

C: Troy Murphy, PF: Blake Griffin, SF: Mike Dunleavy, SG: Danny Granger, PG: TJ Ford

Key Reserves: Marquis Daniels, Roy Hibbert, Jarrett Jack, Jeff Foster

The Pacers are quickly becoming one of the faster-paced teams in the league, and Griffin is athletic enough to fit right in.  However, his presence presents defensive issues for the team.  He slides into the 4-spot, pushing Troy Murphy to center where he is sometimes overmatched.  Griffin manning the 4-spot also keeps Dunleavy and Granger  out on the wings where they get beat by the quicker players in the league.  Still, Griffin’s addition puts five guy on the floor that can create their own shot, making this offense difficult to stop.

OVERALL IMPROVEMENT: 4 STARS OUT OF FIVE

PHOENIX SUNS  (0.5% chance of winning the NBA Draft lottery)

POTENTIAL 2009-2010 STARTING LINEUP

C: Squaquille O’Neal, PF: Amare Stoudemire, SF: Jason Richardson, SG: Leandro Barbosa, PG: Steve Nash

Key Reserves: Blake Griffin, Robin Lopez, Goran Dragic

The only team in the lottery with a winning record, the Phoenix Suns have one more year to try to right the ship before it sinks completely.  Griffin, who would come off the bench behind Stoudemire and O’Neal, is a powerful weapon to place beside either of these two superstars.  And he will make a superb building block once the rebuilding process inevitably begins.

For the upcoming year, Griffin is certainly athletic enough to fit into the up-tempo D’Antoni pace that Alivin Gentry revived midway through last season.  That’s assuming that Gentry is retained.  Either way, Griffin is a superb talent that can thrive in any offensive system.

OVERALL IMPROVEMENT: 2 STARS OUT OF FIVE

 

 

Pat Riley and Dwyane Wade have decisions to make.

Escorted out of the playoffs by a hungrier, more athletic, and more talented Atlanta Hawks team, the Miami Heat begins looking to next year.  But will next year be any different?

Miami will have 11 players under contract next season: Dwyane Wade, Jermaine O’Neal, Udonis Haslem, Michael Beasley, Mario Chalmers, James Jones, Daequan Cook, Dorell Wright, Chris Quinn, Yakhouba Diawara, and Mark Blount.  Expected to be roughly $12 million over the cap, the Heat is limited to the Mid-Level Exception for any meaningful free-agent signings.  However…

POTENTIAL LUXURY TAX DILEMMA

With the salary cap expected to decrease next season, the luxury tax is also expected to lower to approximately $68 million.  If the Heat wants to stay under the tax threshold, not only can’t it use its MLE to sign anyone new, but it’ll need to shed about $3.5 million by trading off one or more of its existing players and replacing them minimum salaries.  Assuming the Heat is able to find an interested cap-friendly team, potential roster casualties include:

* DORELL WRIGHT ($2,887,165 salary in 2009-2010): minus brief flashes and summer league statistics, Wright hasn’t lived up to his potential with the Heat.  A lot is due to injury and Miami’s glut of players at his position, so maybe another team would be interested in the athletic wing.  His is an expiring contract, so taking him isn’t much of a commitment.  If Miami cuts ties with Wright, it would likely need to find a home for either Cook, Quinn, or Diawara as well in order to sneak under the tax threshold.

* JAMES JONES ($4,330,000 salary in 2009-2010): Jones’s season was derailed by a wrist injury before it got started, so he was never really able to earn his keep.  But he’s still accurate from behind the arc, money from the charity stripe, and a decent defender.  His contract is expensive compared to his production, but it has a team option after 2009-2010, so if anyone takes him, they can cut ties at the end of the season.

* UDONIS HASLEM ($7,100,000 salary in 2009-2010): Haslem provides the hard work, consistency, and leadership that make him a great compliment for a championship team.  Like Charles Oakley and PJ Brown before him, Haslem is a Riley-guy, but sloughing off his salary puts the Heat well under the luxury tax threshold, allows Beasley to move into the 4-spot, Jones to move into the starting lineup, and a smattering of one-year veteran contracts to help the Heat compete next season.

The decreasing salary cap could also put a damper on the potential free agent bonanza planned for the 2010 off-season.  If you were Pat Riley, how would you proceed?

As I wait for the inevitable Cavs-Lakers NBA Finals, my mind wanders to a fun little exercise in futility.  I call it: The Isiah Thomas GM Challenge sponsored by AIG.  It’s my attempt to put together the worst starting five for the highest combined salaries. Here are the rules:

“Using upcoming NBA salaries for the 2009-2010 season (available at HoopsHype), try to field the worst possible starting lineup of players whose total salary exceeds $50,00,000 for the season.”

So, after scouring the dark ugly corners of every NBA roster, here’s my squad:

CENTER: Erick Dampier, Dallas (2009-2010 salary: $10,112,500)

I considered the seldom used Mark Blount, Dan Gadzuric, or DeSagana Diop in this spot, but in the end Erick Dampier’s bloated $10M+ salary was too rich to pass up.  Dampier’s one good season in Golden State seems so far in the past that I feel like he may have actually been teammates with “Run-TMC.”  In five seasons with Dallas, Dampier has averaged fewer than 7 points-per-game and only slightly more than 7.5 rebounds-per-game.  Adding insult to injury, his numbers have steadily decreased across the board, making him a prime candidate for an awful output in 2009-2010 and well worth a roster spot on my “All Over-Priced Team.”

POWER FORWARD: Ben Wallace, Cleveland (2009-2010 salary: $14,000,000)

It pains me to see this once mighty warrior subjected to humiliating lists like these, but Big Ben will be making $14M next season, so my sympathies only reach so far.  This past season, Wallace averaged 2.9 PPG and a pedestrian 6.5 RPG.  Jason Kidd averaged only a few tenths of a rebound less, and he’s a point guard.  You know things aren’t looking good when the best part of Ben’s game is his 41.8% free-throw shooting.

And if necessary, he can always slide up to center and let Brian Cardinal (on the books for $6,750,000 in case you were curious) in off the bench.

SMALL FORWARD: Darius Miles, Portland (2009-2010 salary: $9,000,000)

Part of me feels like putting Miles on my squad is cheating since he’s presumably out of the league with unrecoverable knee injuries.  And with Jerome James making $6.6M for less than nine minutes of work, I’m tempted to leave Miles be.  But as long as Portland has to pay his gimp salary next season, he’s fair game.  For his career, Miles averaged 10.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and had more turnovers than assists.  To be honest, I’d be picking him even if he was completely healthy.

SHOOTING GUARD: Bobby Simmons, New Jersey (2009-2010 salary: $10,560,000)

Bobby Simmons does my team a solid and slides into the 2-spot instead of his natural position at small forward.  Simmons showed so much promise as NBA Most Improved Player with the Clippers; I think he may need to return that trophy.  Since that season, Simmons has averaged fewer than 10PPG, 4RPG, and 1.5APG.  More than a million dollars per point seems steep to me. 

POINT GUARD: Marko Jaric, Memphis (2009-2010 salary: $7,100,000)

I must admit, Marko Jaric has mad game off the court.  I am extremely jealous of Marko for stealing Adriana Lima from us all, so his addition to my “All Over-Priced Team” is as much out of spite as it is for his lack of production.  This season, Jaric averaged barely more than 11 minute per game, and doing fairly little (2.6PPG/1.4APG/1.2RPG).  It’s totally surprising that his name never came up during the Mike Conley/Kyle Lowry debates.

TOTAL COMBINED SALARY: $50,772,500

TEAM OUTLOOK: My team is quarterbacked by a slow point guard who plays better without the ball.  My 2-guard is clumsy off the dribble, and my small forward is both an underachiever and injury-prone.  My frontcourt consists of a guy who basically retired but forgot to get off the court and a big man from Big D who’s living off the fruits of a strong contract year performance five years ago.  With one of the highest combined salaries of any starting five in the league, I fully expect this team would vie for the worst in the league.

What starting five did you come up with?

Extra Credit Assignment:

“What’s the highest combined five player salary that you can plausibly piece together, while maintaining an argument that the team would be unable to reach the playoffs as an eight-seed in the Eastern Conference?”